Gold: We Will Have A Bull Run Next Year

I think we will have a big bull run next year. I think next year gold will finish the year strong as opposed to having this Trump related sell-off. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

We Cannot Stop The Bubble From Popping Nor Should We Try

People are ignoring that the things they think are going to happen are impossible: "Now we are going to get fiscal stimulus, we do not need monetary stimulus." If we get the fiscal stimulus we will need the monetary stimulus more than ever to make it possible. There is no way to finance these deficits unless the Federal Reserve steps up and does it.

Of course, this is a mistake, they should not do it and that is why we are in so much trouble. But I do not think there is any way Trump can fix these problems. They are unfixable! We cannot stop the bubble from popping nor should we try.

The New Year May Start With A Sell-Off

The stock market may start the New Year with a major sell-off, just like this year. What I would do if I was sitting on a bunch of profits , I would maybe sell some S&P futures right now to lock in these prices in case there is a rush to get out in January. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

As Interest Rates Go Up, That Automatically Brings Stock Values Down

As interest rates go up, that automatically brings stock values down.

But I think it is also interesting that the same stock traders that were so worried about what would happen to the stock market if Donald Trump won, the minute he won they just started buying. All they wanted to do was to justify a move up.

People are ignoring that the things they think are going to happen are impossible. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Bond Market Bubble Has Already Bursted

The bond market bubble has already bursted. Interest rates are rising and that is going to compound the problems for an already weakening economy. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))

The Stock Market is Overvalued

The stock market is already overvalued. Its a bubble! And just because we are going to have some tax cuts and regulatory relief, that does not undo that bubble! (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF))

Gold Will Rally in 2017

We are going to get more inflation but it is not a negative for gold, it is a positive for gold. And the markets were wrong about gold at the end of last year, they sold it off when the Fed raised interest rates,, gold bottomed out in January and then had a huge run. We are going to have another big run next year but next year gold is going to finish the year strong. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

Gold: Inflation Will Rise Much Faster Than Interest Rates

I like to see that negativity out there. Gold has gone down quite a bit since the election but if you go back over the last 15 years, gold had a pretty good track record.

It is interesting that the reason that so many people have turned bearish on gold is because they believe there will be more inflation under Donald Trump, that we are going to have larger deficits as a result of the tax cuts, increased government spending and because of the higher inflation, the Federal Reserve is going to get more aggressive and raise interest rates and somehow that increase in interest rates is going to be bad for gold. It is ridiculous! Higher inflation is good for gold!

Inflation will rise much faster than interest rates, so real interest rates are going to fall and that is when gold shines brightest. (Newmont Mining (NEM), Eldorado Gold Corp (USA)(NYSE:EGO), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Barrick Gold (ABX)

Will Donald Trump Produce Any Economic Growth?

The Federal Reserve does not seem to believe that Donald Trump is going to do anything to produce economic growth because they were more optimistic last year when they knew that Obama was going to be the President than they are now, knowing that it is going to be Donald Trump.

The Housing Market Has Been Propped Up By The Fed, Not Ready To Stand Alone

Both the housing market and the auto market have been propped up by the Federal Reserve’s cheap money and artificially low interest rates. These markets may not be ready to stand alone. (Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Tesla Motors (TSLA), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR), Lennar Corporation (LEN), KB Home (KBH))

Markets: If Interest Rates Go Up, The Bubble Pricks

We have a bubble economy. If interest rates go up, the bubble pricks. If you move interest rates higher, by definition, stocks and real estate are less valuable. They are more valuable the lower the rate. If interest rates go up, their values come down, multiples have to go down. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (IYR))

Stock Market: The Trump Rally

This honeymoon is going on, and everybody thinks this is great and the narrative is feeding on itself but people are ignoring the big rise in interest rates and assuming none of it matters. All of a sudden higher rates do not matter because we are going to get all this extra growth from the tax cuts and from the government stimulus. Well, the rarity is if interest rates rise it does not matter about the stimulus, the sedative that will result from higher rates will more than offset it, plus the markets are assuming that higher interest rates will have no effect on U.S. asset prices or the economy. They are wrong on both those counts.

Rising Oil Prices & Interest Rates Will Negatively Impact Stock Prices

Crude oil prices and long term interest rates are continuing to surge, yet stock market traders and investors are completely ignoring what this will mean for corporate earnings and stock valuations. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

U.S. Dollar: The Bearish Case

Right now everybody is talking about how the Federal Reserve is going to tighten, how they will be raising interest rates and they have not connected the dots that all of this is impossible with what Donald Trump and the new secretary of the Treasury are proposing to do. None of this can happen against the backdrop of rising interest rates, it is impossible! It can only happen if the Federal Reserve prevents interest rates from rising by stepping into the market with massive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE). If people understood that, the Dollar would be falling and not rising.

Commodity Prices Are Going To Rise

I think that you are going to see a move up in commodities because of increased inflationary pressures brought by central banks all around the world. There will be a lot more inflation and commodity prices are going to rise substantially as paper currencies lose value. (Nymex Crude Oil Futures, United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Nymex Copper Futures, iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

If Mortgage Rates Keep Rising Real Estate Prices Will Drop 20 to 30%

Mortgage rates can certainly keep rising. I would not be surprised to see the rate north of 5 percent by the time of Trump`s inauguration and maybe we can be at 6 percent or more early next year. I think we will have a 20 to 30 percent decline in real estate prices if mortgage rates are at 6 percent and what is that going to do to the banks? (Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), J.P. Morgan (JPM), citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Deutsche Bank AG (USA)(NYSE:DB))

Bond Market: The Beginning Of A Huge Collapse

Just look at what happened to the long end of the curve after the election. This can be the beginning of a huge collapse in the bond market. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), U.S. Treasuries, iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF (HYG))

Investors Should Be Selling The U.S. Dollar, Not Buying

People who are buying U.S. Dollars are doing the wrong thing, they should be doing the reverse. The U.S. Dollar is making 13 or 14 year highs, it is more than a decade high. I think the U.S. Dollar is in very dangerous territory up here. A lot of speculators maybe are being caught, maybe they are being stopped out of their trades, because again, more inflation is not good for the U.S. Dollar, the dollar will lose purchasing power.

The Bearish Gold Narrative Is False

What people are saying is that because we are going to have a higher inflation, the Federal Reserve is going to have to raise interest rates to fight that higher inflation and those higher interest rates will be bullish for the U.S. Dollar and a strong dollar is going to hurt gold prices. But even if we do get one or two interest rate hikes over the next several years, that will not be sufficient to restrain the inflationary forces that will be building in the economy.

So even if interest rates go up slightly, inflation will go up much more and so real interest rates in an inflationary environment will be falling and not rising and that is very negative for the U.S. Dollar and it is extremely positive for gold. (Barrick Gold (ABX), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG))

Higher Inflation Is Bullish For Gold

The idea that higher inflation is somehow a negative for gold is completely wrong. I do agree that the markets are correct in that inflation will be increasing, especially given the stimulus that a Republican Congress and President Trump may in fact deliver. But that is a good thing for gold, not a bad thing for gold. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG))

For How Long Can The Market Be Oblivious To Higher Rates?

For how long can the stock market be oblivious to higher interest rates? Because not only do higher interest rates dramatically slow the economy, they crush the housing market, but stocks themselves, you value stocks based on interest rates. You discount earnings based on interest rates.

Even if the earnings go up a little bit, you have to discount them by a higher amount and the PEs (price to earnings ratio) are already very high and the justification for the high PEs was not the growth rate, it was the discount rate. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

The Catalyst For The Next Economic Recession

The same people that believed that there was a real economic recovery now believe it is going to get even better. Why? In fact, this so called recovery is so old that we are overdue for a recession and why would not this big increase in interest rates be the catalyst to cause it?

Bond Market: Serious Technical Damage Has Been Done

Everybody is ignoring the monetary drag that is already evident from the bloodbath in the bond market and this is going to continue.

In fact if you look at the trend lines, we have broken some serious trend lines now which were down in yield and up in bond prices that have been in existence since 2007. So we have done some serious technical damage in the bond market. (10- year U.S. Treasuries, 30-year U.S. Government Bonds, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT))

The Stock Market Is Getting It Wrong

Regardless of a December interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve is soon going to be reversing course and cutting interest rates and doing another round of quantitative easing (QE). In fact, long term interest rates are already spiking up on the potential that Yellen might raise interest rates and that is going to be enough to really prick the bubble in the housing market.

So far the stock market is remaining oblivious to the spike in bond yields because I think they believe the stimulus that might result from the tax cuts and spending increases will be enough to offset the drag of higher interest rates and I think they are very mistaken. There is no way to counteract the damage to this bubble that will result from a spike in long term interest rates.

This Can Be A Blowoff Top In The U.S. Dollar

This can really be a blowoff top in the Dollar Index, trading now at new 14-year highs. The Dollar Index is now above 100 as everybody is so sure that the Federal Reserve is going to be tightening. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), EURUSD forex cross)

Newly Negotiated Trade Deals & Infrastructure Investment May Be Bullish For Silver

The renegotiated trade deals and the infrastructure investments planned under a Trump Administration may prove bullish for future silver prices. (iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

The Beginning Of An Explosive Move Up In Interest Rates

It is not just the fact that bond yields are rising but the rapidity of the move and the technical damage that`s being done. This could be the beginning of an explosive move up in interest rates and right now no one seems to care. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK))

The Stock Market Bubble Needs To Deflate

There is no way we can have the economic growth that everyone is so excited about until we deflate the stock market bubble and Trump talked about a stock market bubble when he run for Office.

This Is A Gigantic Bond Bubble

This is a gigantic bond bubble that has been inflating for decades and we do not get a free pass because we have Trump. Our economy is so screwed up, the imbalances are so enormous of decades of bad policy that we just cannot elect Donald Trump and now everything magically goes away! (10- Year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) )

The 30-Year U.S. Government Bonds Will Collapse

Donald Trump has already said that we wants to take advantage of these low interest rates, finance deficits with 30 year bonds. So if he is going to be selling all these 30-year bonds, bond prices are already falling now in anticipation of this massive supply. The Federal Reserve is not buying them, there is no more QE in place. The emerging market currencies are being slaughtered, they are not going to be buying dollars, they are starting to sell U.S. Dollars, they are going to need to sell their Treasuries.

So, if you have emerging markets central banks trying to unload Treasuries from their reserves, the Federal Reserve is not buying any and at the same time the U.S. Government trying to sell massive quantities of long term Treasuries, how can the price of those bonds not collapse?

The Bond Bubble Is Deflating

The bond market had its worse week since 2013 and it looks like a lot more carnage can come if we really break down. Yields are still low. The yield on the 10-Year Treasuries is just above 2.10 percent and the yield on the 30-Year is now above 2.90 percent. These are still low yields but they are not nearly as low as they were a while back. But what is more important is the momentum in this move and how much higher interest rates would potentially go as this bond bubble deflates.

Stock Market, Gold & Bonds

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) was up almost 1,000 points last week. The gold market was down 70 dollars on the week, a percentage decline of 7 percent or so. Silver was also down about 5 percent. Gold and silver stocks were down close to 20 percent.

The stock market had its best week since 2011 and the bond market had its worse week since 2013 and it looks like a lot more carnage can come if we really start to break down.

U.S. Economy: What Trump Is Planning To Do Is Impossible

Back in 1980, America was still the World's largest creditor nation so our bonds seemed like a good risk and they were paying a very high rate of interest to the people willing to loan us the money. Fast forward to 2016, if Donald Trump thinks he can pull a Ronald Reagan, if he thinks he can cut taxes and increase government spending and somehow finance that...that is impossible! And the bond market is just starting to show that. (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT))

Bond Market: Explosive Move In Yields In Reaction To Trump

We had an explosive move in yields. Some people are saying, well maybe this is just the bond market reacting to the possibility of higher growth. No! This is the bond market reacting to the possibility of much bigger deficits, huge supply. What Donald Trump is promising to do is going to explode an already enormous budget deficit. (10- year U.S. Treasuries, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), 30-year U.S. Government Bonds)

Trump: The Bond Market Is Giving A Flashing Warning Signal

Donald Trump is intending to increase government spending in infrastructure to create jobs, on national defense to keep us safe, on taking care of the veterans, to build a wall...He is talking about massive increases in spending and at the same time he is talking about substantial cuts in taxes. He wants to cut the corporate tax rate, he wants to cut the individual tax rate. This is something we have not seen since Reagan. Donald Trump is going to run into a brick wall that did not exist at the time of Reagan and the bond market is really giving a big flashing warning signal.

The Only Way Central Banks Could Hurt Gold Prices

The only way to really hurt gold would be for Central Banks to become aggressive inflation fighters, to really get in front of the curve, to raise interest rates substantially. I do not see any of that happening! (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

Gold: A Down Payment On Much Larger Returns

I think this recent gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) correction is just a down payment on much larger returns. When the year began everybody was bearish on gold because everybody expected the federal reserve to hike interest rates, not just hike once but begin the much hyped and anticipated normalization process. Because interest rates have been at zero for many, many years and the Federal reserve was beginning to normalize interest rates. What I said at the time was, (A) I did not believe it, even if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates it would not matter because they would never deliver the number of interest rate hikes that were anticipated by the markets.

Why Does Wall Street Prefer Hillary Clinton?

Why does Wall Street want Hillary Clinton? Because Hillary Clinton continues the status quo that everyone on Wall Street likes. (Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C))

The Stock Market Prefers Hillary

It is no secret that the markets want Hillary Clinton to be elected. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

A Very Suspicious GDP Number

I am very suspicious of this recent GDP number. It is the strongest number in over 2 years and it comes out less than 2 weeks before the election. Of course one of the issues Dnalpd Trump had has been the weak GDP growth which has averaged just 1 percent over the last 3 quarters. All of a sudden its 2.9 percent?

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Why Is Consumer Confidence Dropping

I don`t think it is an accident that consumer confidence is dropping at the same time that Trump`s poll numbers are dropping because I think there was a lot of hope and optimism on the part of Trump voters.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Even A Tiny Rate Hike Will Damage This Bubble Economy

I believe that this bubble is so big, we have so much debt, that even these tiny interest rate hikes are doing damage to this bubble economy.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Gold, U.S. Dollar & Interest Rates

Even if the currency traders are worried about a December interest rate hike to the extent that they think it is negative to foreign currencies, gold traders do not seem to care about how an interest rate hike might impact the price of gold because the price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD)) is rising even as the probability of a December interest rate hike is rising.

Which says either gold traders do not believe those numbers and they feel that a December interest rate hike is not coming or they correctly concluded that even if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates in December its no big deal. Its too little to late to be a negative for the gold market because the Federal Reserve is going to deliver far less than it promised when it comes to interest rate hikes. 

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Gold: Indian Farmers Are Buying More Gold

In India a healthy monsoon season is creating a renewed interest in gold by indian farmers. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Economic Data Indicates An Incoming Recession

The economic data indicates an incoming recession. The number of multiple jobholders reached the highest number since the 2008 financial crisis. (Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

We Need To Shrink The Government

The U.S. was great because government was small. But now government is great, and the United States will not be great again until we shrink the government.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

More Money Will Move Into Gold

As the potential for an interest rate hike is diminishing the appeal of Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD)) is improving. Gold prices (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD)) are now back above 1260. We had a couple of back to back strong days in the gold sector (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)) and maybe this most recent correction of the upward trend which the catalyst for it was the renewed expectation of a November and December interest rate hike, I think as those expectations are reallistically dialed back we are going to see more money moving into the metals (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver ETF (SLV))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

If The Fed Raises Interest Rates Everything Is Going To Collapse

I do not believe that if we raise interest rates everything is going to be fine. I recognize that if we raise interest rates everything is going to collapse. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Bond Yields Are Moving Up

Another week when the Dollar remained relatively firmly bid, the Dollar Index closed just above 98. Gold is not really going down but its not really going up either. What is going up are bond yields, long-term bond yields just made a 4-month high with the 30-year yield at 2.55% and the 10-year Treasury yield just below 1.80% and this despite the fact that the economic news during the week, on balance, were generally weaker than expected.  (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK), iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), U.S. Treasuries, iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF (HYG))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Only Thing That Is Bad For Gold

The only thing that is bad for gold is if Janet Yellen goes Paul Volcker and really decides to jack interest rates up so that real interest interest rates spike up. That would be negative for gold. Just a quarter point interest rate hike? The inflation is going to be rising faster than any Fed rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is going to be behind the curve the entire time. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), NovaGold (NG), Hecla Mining (NL))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.