Markets: QE4 Coming Next Year

I think they will be doing QE4 next year, that is the problem. And not because any of this works (QE), it does not work. But we are trapped in this. The Gold market is going to like it.

(SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Financial Markets: You Can Only Imagine What Lies Ahead

We have had 7 years of zero percent interest rates and the damage that the Federal Reserve has done to this economy is much greater than what was done under Greenspan and that gave us the 2008 financial crisis. So you can only imagine what lies ahead as a result of what the Federal Reserve has done to us this time. (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

How To Play Gold

I started to tell people to buy gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), when it was at 300 dollars an ounce.

I do not tell people to put all their money in gold. I tell people to put some of their money in gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), 5 to 10 percent and as you get more money as the price of gold comes down you can add to it at a better price.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Manufacturing Is In Recession And Getting Worse

Manufacturing is already in recession and that is just going to get worse and obviously this interest rate hike and the belief that the Federal Reserve has got more coming is just going to accelerate this process.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Federal Reserve Will Be Forced To Admit That It Is Wrong

As the economy slows and the Federal Reserve is forced to admit that it is wrong and it is forced to lower interest rates back down to zero and launch QE4, there goes its credibility. They were obviously wrong and they were so wrong that they could not even admit it.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Credibility Bubble Might Be The First One To Deflate

I think the Federal Reserve is getting dangerously close to losing what remains of their credibility. The credibility bubble might be the first one to deflate and it is amazing that after two busted bubbles in the past 15 years the Federal Reserve still has any credibility left. But I think it is going to be the third time the charm or whatever is the opposite of charm for the Federal Reserve when it comes to losing their credibility.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Bond Bubble: Junk Bonds, Treasuries

When rates move up all bubbles are going to burst. The Bond bubble, it is not just junk bonds, there is a bubble in sovereign credit, there is a bubble in Treasuries. (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF (JNK), iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF (HYG))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

All The Forward Economic Indicators Are Flashing Recession

The whole economy is nothing but a bubble. We did not have a legitimate economic recovery, we just had a bubble and te bubble needs to be pricked. But if you look at all the forward economic indicators, they are all flashing recession. The only one that is not is the Unemployment Rate which is a lagging indicator.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Interest Rate Hike: The Economic Data Did Not Justify It

I think the Federal Reserve felt that even though the data did not justify it, that they had to raise rates because they were afraid of the psychological damage, in other words, to prove they were confident in the economy they had to raise interest rates even though the economic data would argue against it. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Federal Reserve Will Not Raise Rates Again

Yellen is trying to reassure markets not to anticipate much in the way of additional tightening and in fact I do not think this is the beginning of the hiking cycle. I think this is the end of it. Normally when the Federal Reserve behind to raise interest rates they do it early in the recovery when the economy has a lot of upper momentum. But the Federal Reserve has waited so long that this recovery is almost over. The recession is about to begin. I think there is a good chance it is already hereof will begin early in 2016.

I think the only reason the Fed is raising rates is to try to show they have confidence in the economy but the reality is that they are trying to cover up fears with this symbolic rate hike. I think they will be doing QE4 next year, they will not raise rates again.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Oil Prices & Stock Prices Are Going Down For The Same Reason

The truth is oil prices and stock prices are going down for the same reason. It is not that lower oil prices are causing the market to go down. Both are going down for the same reason and that reason is a slowing global economy including the U.S. Economy and the fact that the Federal Reserve is threatening to slow it even faster by raising interest rates. That is what is driving the market down.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

If The Fed Was Data Dependent They Would Not Be Raising Rates

The economic data is bad. They do not want to acknowledge that. If the Federal Reserve was data dependent they would not be raising rates based on their own criteria, but they do not want to acknowledge what should be obvious. ( Select Sector Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

If The Fed Raises Rates, They Will Cut Them Back Again

I think when the Federal Reserve raises rates the next thing they are going to do is to cut them back down to zero. We will probably be in a recession next year or close enough to it, that the Federal Reserve tries to delay the onset of that recession by stimulating again by going down to zero, doing QE4 and of course when the Federal Reserve does that they will look like complete fools. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY))

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

The Most Dovish Interest Rate Hike Ever

Manufacturing is in recession and the overall economy will likely join the manufacturing sector next year. In fact, we lost manufacturing jobs again this month.

Everyone is still convinced that the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates next week. They might just do it now because Janet Yellen has basically assured everybody that it does not matter if they raise rates now, what matters is what they will do afterwords. She is basically trying to take the sting out of it by making this the most dovish interest rate hike ever. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

 Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

U.S. Economy: The Recovery is Ending

Manufacturing is already in a recession. Look at the ISM number that came out last week at a 6 year low. Even the Services sector ISM came way below estimates. Retails sales have been abysmal, consumer confidence is going down. All signs point that the recovery is ending.

Markets: Interest Rate Hike, Tightening Cycle

If we actually get an interest rate hike next week that is the only interest rate hike we re going to get from the Federal Reserve. It is not going to be the beginning of the tightening cycle, it is going to be the end of the tightening cycle which actually begun a couple of years ago when they first started talking about the taper.  That was the beginning of the tightening cycle and I think the first official rate hike, if we actually get one, is going to be the end of the process.

I Expect The Dollar To Be Weaker

As I have been saying, we have the biggest problems in the United States and so I do expect the U.S. Dollar to be weaker than these other fiat currencies and when they are sinking but the dollar is sinking faster that is when the price of gold can really take off. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

The Best Environment For Gold

The best environment for Gold is going to be when the weakest currency is the U.S. Dollar. Gold does well when all the currencies are going down but for some reason the U.S. Dollar needs to be going down the most. Because if the U.S. Dollar is going down more slowly than the Euro Currency or the Yen everybody assumes the U.S. Dollar is strong and Gold goes down which is an asinine assumption and obviously its not going to be able to persist that way. Ultimately gold has to go up.

Dow Jones: The 2,000 Points Relief Rally May Be Reversed

We were down 400 points in the last 2 days on the Dow Jones Industrials and remember the Dow Jones rallied 2,000 points off its September low. That is where it was when everybody thought the Federal Reserve was going to hike interest rates in September and when we got that bad jobs number we had a 2,000 points relief rally because the Fed was not about to raise rates.

And now what as been holding up the market was the idea that the ECB was going to come in with all this money printing. But now that we are not going to get that and people still expect Yellen to raise rates, well, we might lose the entire 2,000 points relief rally in which case the rate hike is back off the table as if it was ever on the table in the first place.

The Fed Is Going To Look Ridiculous For Having Raised Rates

They waited so long to raise interest rates that the economy is already going into recession on its own without any help from the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve now gives it a push by raising interest rates even slightly, we are going into recession that much quicker and the Federal Reserve is going to look ridiculous for having raised interest rates so close to the beginning of the recession.

Gold: Hedge Funds Are The Most Short They Have Ever Been

By the way, hedge funds are the most they have ever been in Gold right now, the least long, the most short, their net short position.

Obviously everybody who shorted gold, if you shorted it over the last few years, you are ahead. That trade is a winner for everybody. Let`s see what happens if the price of gold reverses between now and the end of the year  and we get a lot of hedge funds that want to book those profits. We will see how much profit remains to be booked if all the shorts at once decide to cover because I think a lot of people sitting on paper profits are going to find these paper profits difficult to realize when everybody is trying to realize them at the same time.

Meanwhile in the physical gold world the demand for gold continues to hit records as we are getting reports from the mints about what demand is for actual physical silver and gold coins.

U.S. Economy: Consumers Aren`t Confident

This was the lowest level for Consumer Confidence in 14 months. The Federal Reserve is just getting ready to raise interest rates as the economy is supposedly ready for it yet consumer confidence is at 14 month lows.

Consumers were a lot more confident 14 months ago when the Federal Reserve said they could not raise interest rates but now they are saying, "Everything is perfect, we are going to raise interest rates" and they are getting economic data that suggests that thy should be doing the opposite!

Corporate Profits Are Declining

Buried in that GDP report were some other very bad numbers. For example, there was a 4.7 percent decline in corporate profits during the quarter. That is the biggest decline in corporate profits since 2009!

The Manufacturing Recession Is Already Here

We got 52.6 on the Manufacturing PMI and that was the lowest number in 2 years. I have been talking about this for a long time on the podcast. The manufacturing recession is already here.

The mainstream will acknowledge this but they do not even think it matters. They think that manufacturing is so small a part of the economy that it does not really matter. Admitting that is such a small part of the economy is part of the problem. It cannot be a small part of the economy! The fact that it is a small part of the economy is a problem in and of itself.

A Bullish Case For Gold

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) failed to rally in the wake of the terrorist attack so the shorts came back in. But everybody has piled short as they are all waiting for the Federal Reserve to hike rates. This is the most anticipated rate hike in the history of interest rate hikes and again one and done is not gonna cut it. The Federal Reserve is going to need to raise interest rates substantially to validate this move in the dollar but they can`t. They can`t validate it because any significant move up in interest rates would precipitate a financial crisis.

We Are Going To Be Back In Official Recession Or Close Enough Soon

Long before the Federal Reserve gets to 1.00% rates if they actually start in December, we are going to be back in official recession or close enough to it that the Federal Reserve is going to have to stimulate the economy again.

December Meeting: A Rate Hike If The Market Is Near Record Highs

If the market is near record highs in the day before the meeting (in December) and it looks like as if everybody is OK with a tiny interest rate hike, they might do it.

Tickers: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Industrial Production: More Signs Of A Recession

Industrial Production, this is the 9th monthly drop in the last 10 months. This is the weakest this series has been since January 2010. How many signs of a recession does the Federal Reserve need?

The Safest Thing For The Federal Reserve To Do

The safest thing for the Federal reserve to do given the game that they are playing is to not raise interest rates in December and keep pretending that they are going to. Because so far, so good. It is working like a charm!

Empire State Manufacturing: Biggest Losing Streak Outside of a Recession

This is the fourth straight month in a row that it`s been down and all of the components were very weak. This is the biggest losing streak for this index outside of a recession. So, maybe we are in a recession and that is why we are getting readings that are consistent with a recession or the recovery is so weak that its like a recession.

The Federal Reserve Will Find An Excuse Not To Raise Rates

With the Dollar rallying, commodity prices falling, the Federal Reserve has another reason to say, Well, you know, inflation is too low, we do not have meet our inflation goal and it can easily get away without raising interest rates in December.

China Is Accumulating Gold Quietly and Secretly

I think China is deliberately underreporting their gold holdings. I think they are accumulating more and more gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), quietly and maybe secretly because I do think that ultimately that is their intention, to have a gold backed Yuan becoming the predominant currency in the world.

Fed: The Only Reason They May Raise Interest Rates

If they are really dependent on the economic data, its all been bad. The data has been consistently bad. If they are really data dependent they should not be raising interest rates.

The only reason they may raise interest rates is because they feel they have to because they are worried that the market might begin to get suspicious of the game they are playing if they do not move.

Dip In Gold Is A Buying Opportunity

The price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) has fallen back below 1100 dollars. In fact the price of gold has declined almost one hundred dollars in the last 30 days. We are back down in the vicinity of the August low. I think this is an opportunity for those who thought that the rally was getting away from you.

The Case Against A December Rate Hike

Is the Federal Reserve really going to raise rates in December? If they do hike rates and the economy falls apart, they are going to say, "You see, they hiked rates, they did it, they ruined the economy! The Fed did a mistake by raising interest rates."

They do not want to risk that. If they never raised rates and the economy turns down, they will think they were smart.

The Fed Is About To Run Into A Brick Wall

Recessions do not start with layoffs. First the economy turns down and then companies layoff. Companies do not just start laying off people for no reason. Employees react to the recession. The economy turns down, sales turn down, and then businesses start to lay off. Then these layoffs make the existing recession even worse.

You can`t just look at the unemployment numbers and make monetary policy from that as if that is the data that really counts. The Federal Reserve wants to make economic policy looking into the rearview mirror. They are about to run into a brick wall!

Economic Data Is Consistent With The Beginning Of A Recession

The economic data is awful. This data is consistent with the beginning of a recession. This is when the Federal Reserve typically would be easing monetary policy but the problem is they never tightened. The recession has already started and they never finished fighting the last one.

U.S. Economy: All Of The Evidence Is Flashing Recession

All of the evidence is flashing recession. The consumers are running out of money, the inventories are piling up unsold on the shelves, retail sales are plunging, retailers stocks are crashing. The recession is beginning if it hash`t already begun.

Stocks: Major Retailers Are Selling Off

All these stocks are going down, even the high end. Look at Tiffany (TIF), it is trading at a 52 week low. All the major retailers are hitting multi year lows.

Related stocks: Macys (M), Wal-Mart (WMT), Nordstrom (JWN)

Retailers: Weak, Weak Sales Across The Board!

Think about this. We are getting Wal-Mart (WMT) which is the mass retailer where everyone is shopping on a budget. They had horrible numbers.

Then you have probably the largest department store, Macy`s (M), which is, you know, not high end but higher end, kind of mid-market, nicer stuff, more expensive stuff than Wal-Mart (WMT). They had horrible numbers.

And then you have Neiman Marcus which is the high end, probably the biggest high end retailer in the country, they had horrible numbers too!

Its across the board weak, weak sales!

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

A Buying Opportunity In Gold & Gold Stocks

These currency speculators really believe the Federal Reserve and they just sold off the price of gold, they brought down the price of gold stocks. That is an opportunity, that is a buying opportunity for the few people that actually recognize what is really going on.

Stocks: Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX)

ETF`s: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

We Are Headed For A Crisis

I think the way this bubble is going to deflate is that the Federal Reserve is not going to be able to raise interest rates and investors are eventually going to figure out that predicament because of the Fed`s failure to act. And the U.S. Dollar is going to ultimately turn around, take the bond market with it, push up consumer prices, push up interest rates and really put the squeeze on the economy even further.

If the Federal Reserve actually tries to raise interest rates, then they are just going to prick the bubble much faster. So either way the air is going to come out and we are headed for a crisis.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Federal Reserve, Interest Rates & Stock Market

If the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in December the markets may not have a good reaction. What will the Fed do then to stop the markets from bleeding?

The Fed Will Not Raise Rates In December

The Federal Reserve will probably not raise interest rates in December but Wall Street is increasingly expecting a rate hike in the December meeting, says peter Schiff.

Why The Big U.S. Banks Are Vulnerable

Peter Schiff explains why the big banks are very vulnerable now as they are highly leveraged.

Related banking stocks: Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)

What Will Happen When The Fed Raises Interest Rates

Peter Schiff explains what will happen if the Federal Reserve finally decides to raise interest rates.

Why Is The Fed So Afraid Of Raising Rates

The Federal Reserve is very afraid of raising interest rates because it may ignite a stock market sell-off, says Peter Schiff.

Rate Hikes Only After A Dollar Crisis

We will only have an interest rate hike after we have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis, says Peter Schiff.

The Big Banks Are Even More Vulnerable Now

The big banks are even more vulnerable now as they are highly leveraged, says Peter Schiff.

Stocks: Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)

Gold Should Not Be Compared To Stocks

Gold should not be compared to stocks as an investment. Gold is money and it should be compared to fiat currencies. Your savings should be in gold and not in fiat currencies like the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen or the British Pound, says Peter Schiff.