May 24, 2017

Markets: Gold, Silver, US Stocks

So far in 2017 the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is up just under 7 percent but the price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) and silver (iShares Silver ETF (SLV)) are up about 7.5%

Now despite the fact that both precious metals and the US stock market have performed about the same thus far in 2017, Americans are rushing to buy US stocks yet they're completely ignoring precious metals. This despite the fact that the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) or the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) is at an all-time record high and the valuations are clearly in bubbled territory. Yet when it comes to gold and silver even though they're doing well this year, gold prices are about 30 percent below their peak price in 2011 and silver is better than 60 percent below its peak price. 

So despite the fact that gold and silver are outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)) this year they have a much further way to go to get back to their highs.

May 23, 2017

US Dollar: The Decline Has Just Begun

The US Dollar continues its losing streak. The US Dollar Index was down for the 8th time in nine days. The US Dollar Index actually traded below 97 for the first time since Donald Trump was elected President, so we have wiped out 100 percent of the ill-gotten dollar gains that were racked up in the wake of that victory. and if you remember when the dollar was rallying as a result of the Trump victory I said it was a sucker's rally that it was a head-fake rally and sure enough that's exactly what it was but the US Dollar decline has only just begun.

May 22, 2017

SALT Conference: Gundlach on Stocks

His conclusion was that the US stocks are very expensive and that people should sell US stocks and invest in foreign stocks. In particular Gundlach likes the emerging markets. He was also very bearish on the dollar saying the same kind of stuff as me saying that the crowd is wrong, that this is a crowded trade (that the US Dollar is going to go up) because the Federal Reserve raising rates is wrong.

May 19, 2017

Markets: Trump Scandal, A Crash In Brazil

So this should rattle confidence as should the drop in the stock market if it continues. But despite that this drop is not very large, I mean look at what's happening in Brazil.  The Brazilian market is getting obliterated, it's crashed, I mean you got a lot of these Brazilian stocks today are down 10 to 20 percent based on a political scandal in Brazil where they they have a recording of the president of Brazil offering a bribe and they've got that on audio recording. 

The market is crashing because they're calling for resignation or impeachment there now of course it's the same problem here although I guess they've got a better case against the Brazilian president.

This shows you what can actually happen with a market that's smaller when everybody wants to get through the same door at the same time, the liquidity is not there and prices collapse.

The same thing could eventually happen to the United States but of course if we had a drop today like they're experiencing the Brazil the Federal Reserve would be out there, they would be cutting rates they would be telegraphic QE4 they would be doing whatever they could to try to reverse the decline in the market. (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (EWZ))

May 17, 2017

Video: Retail Stocks Bloodbath

The retail bloodbath. Retails stocks have been hit hard recently. (Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Macy's Inc (NYSE:M))

May 16, 2017

Stocks: The Retail Apocalypse (JCP, JWN, KSS, M)

Let me get into what I want to talk about. First of all it's the retail apocalypse which I have been talking about that from my perspective and not just my perspective, I think in reality the retail sector is in worse shape worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis.

And you know we got a lot of bad news from the retailers this week including J. C. Penney Inc (NYSE:JCP),  and Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) horrible sales from these companies and we had other retailers earlier in the week that came out with with bad news as Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS) department store.

If you look at some of the stocks like Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS),  trading at $36.50 - that stock was at $75-80 in the summer of 2015, so it's down 60 percent or so.

Dillard's which is at a 52 week low at just under $47 that was over a $120 more than a 50% decline.

Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) was down another 3 percent today, a new 52 week low. Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) is at 23.60 and Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) was like a $70 stock in the summer of 2015.

These are huge markdowns for these retailers.

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